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Environmental predictors of forest change: An analysis of natural predisposition to deforestation in the tropical Andes region, Peru

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dc.contributor.author Bax, Vincent
dc.contributor.author Francesconi, Wendy
dc.date.accessioned 2019-08-02T04:27:41Z
dc.date.available 2019-08-02T04:27:41Z
dc.date.issued 2018-02
dc.identifier.citation Bax, V., & Francesconi, W. (2018). Environmental predictors of forest change: An analysis of natural predisposition to deforestation in the tropical Andes region, Peru. Applied geography, 91, 99-110. en_PE
dc.identifier.issn 0143-6228
dc.identifier.uri http://repositorio.uch.edu.pe/handle/uch/300
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.01.002
dc.identifier.uri https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0143622817310779
dc.description.abstract The spatial patterns of deforestation are usually non-randomly distributed across the landscape. While anthropogenically driven processes are often addressed in land-use regulation policies and deforestation research, less attention is given to the environmental factors that influence tropical deforestation. This study investigates to what extent climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) and biophysical landscape characteristics (elevation, slope, soil type, forest type, and distance to rivers) facilitate or mitigate deforestation processes in Peru's tropical Andes. A Random Forest regression model was constructed for the entire Peruvian tropical Andes, and separate models were developed for some of the known direct deforestation drivers in the region (coca production, gold mining, and land-use by indigenous and non-indigenous communities). Soil type and precipitation were identified as the most important deforestation predictors when the entire Peruvian tropical Andes was considered, whereas distance to rivers was associated with deforestation by mining activities, and elevation and temperature with coca cultivation areas. Using the regression results, a Random Forest classification model was constructed to locate areas where the composition of environmental factors could either facilitate or mitigate deforestation processes. It was found that almost 85% of the forests classified as having high to very high probability to deforestation were located outside current protected areas. In order to increase conservation impacts, the results suggest that greater consideration should be given to the distribution of environmental factors when designing land-use regulation policies and establishing protected areas. en
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Elsevier Ltd en_PE
dc.relation info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.relation.isPartOf Applied Geography
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.source Repositorio Institucional - UCH en_PE
dc.source Universidad de Ciencias y Humanidades en_PE
dc.subject Climate conditions en
dc.subject Conservation en
dc.subject Deforestation en
dc.subject Forest cover en
dc.subject Human activity en
dc.subject Land use planning en
dc.subject Montane forest en
dc.title Environmental predictors of forest change: An analysis of natural predisposition to deforestation in the tropical Andes region, Peru en_PE
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.01.002 en_PE
dc.identifier.journal Applied Geography en_PE
dc.identifier.scopus 2-s2.0-85041395760


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